The bear market for cryptocurrencies is finally affecting some of the staunchest crypto bulls. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, who is known for his strong support of digital currencies, cut his year-end forecast for Bitcoin yet again.
His forecast now predicts that Bitcoin will come between $15,000 and $25,000 by the end of the year, which is almost half of his previous prediction. He noted that Bitcoin’s break-even mining costs is responsible for this forecast.
Why Is the Bull Getting Bearish Month by Month?
Tom Lee is one of the few people on Wall Street who openly supported Bitcoin and suggested that it could go to the moon. However, since Bitcoin’s all-time high we have had an almost yearlong bear market, and even Lee is cutting his forecasts. Recently, he cut his Bitcoin price forecast in half, now predicting that the coin could reach $15,000 to $20,000 by the end of the year. Though it is still quite a high number, it isn’t compared with his previous forecasts of $50,000 and above.
According to Lee, the primary driver behind the forecast is Bitcoin’s “break-even” point. Since the S9 mining machine from Bitcoin was launched, the mining costs of Bitcoin went down from $8,000 to $7,000. As Bitcoin’s price is tied to the cost of mining, it would rest between $15,000 to $25,000 at roughly 2.2 times the new break-even point.
This week has been disappointing for Bitcoin as it has continued down hitting lows today near $4,500, its lowest point of the year. Other cryptos have also followed suit and seen double-digit percentage losses during this week.
Is There Some Hope for Recovery?
Even though Lee has slashed his forecasts, he is not ringing the death bell for Bitcoin and betting on a recovery. In a note, Lee noted that Bitcoin “never sustained a move below breakeven,” even in the midst of its previous bear markets in 2013 and 2015.
“While Bitcoin broke below that psychologically important $6,000, this has led to a renewed wave of pessimism. But we believe the negative swing in sentiment is much worse than the fundamental implications.”