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Monero Weekly Chart – Source: TradingView.com

A look at the weekly chart of Monero (XMR), shows that we broke the $75 level of support which had been holding since the beginning of the summer and is now heading lower. The two support areas to watch are the $25-30 area formed by the lows of July 2017 (less likely to hold), and the $10-15 area formed by the highs of 2016 (more likely to hold).

Long Term Outlook

Monero 3-Day Chart – Source: TradingView.com

A look at the 3-day chart paints a similar bearish picture. The RSI is at 23, a level not seen previously, however, there is no divergence visible yet. Price is below all moving averages (9, 21 50 and 200 periods), and it rejected a 9-21 period bullish cross (yellow arrow) in late November. Thus, the long-term view supports the scenario in which we fall to one of the two support areas outlined previously.

Medium Term Outlook

Monero Daily Chart – Source: TradingView.com
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A look at the Daily chart shows a more positive outlook. While the price has been falling, the RSI and Chaikin Oscillator have started developing a bullish divergence. If a bounce occurs, traders may want to take profit at the $77-$86 area, formed by previous support and the 0.618 Fibonacci level.

Short Term Outlook

Monero 6-hour Chart – Source: TradingView.com

A look at the 6hr chart gives us an even more positive outlook. There is huge bullish divergence developing on the RSI and MACD, and the MACD rejected a bearish cross and is now seemingly heading upward, trying to break 0. However, the price is facing resistance from the 9-21 period moving averages and the cloud. If price were to bounce and break the cloud, the potential profit taking area laid out in the previous section would correspond with our 200-period MA.

Conclusions:

  •         Monero broke the $75 support.
  •         Next levels of support are at $25-30 and $10-15.
  •         Short-Term bullish divergence is developing, possible bounce.
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